Can Morocco win the World Cup 2026?
LONG SHOT — significant upsets required. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Morocco a 2.6% champion probability — ranked #14 of 48 nations. Morocco is a top-tier favourite (FIFA #8, 4 Premier League players in the squad).
Can Morocco win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's model puts Morocco's championship probability at 2.6% — a long shot, ranked 14th of 48. Updated live as group-stage and knockout results land; see the full board on the winner page.
Morocco World Cup 2026 chances
From 2.6% now, Morocco's number moves with every match — a group-stage upset re-shrinks it; a clean win against an in-form opponent expands it. Onside re-runs a 10,000-simulation Monte Carlo on every result so the chance number you see here is the most current model snapshot, not a pre-tournament freeze.
Morocco's route to the final
Group stage first, then a six-game knockout to lift the trophy. Onside's knockout simulator shows the most likely opponent at each round; the bracket below traces the full Monte Carlo path for Morocco.
Morocco's path to the final
Morocco's group fixtures
3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
Morocco vs the field
TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS
Morocco's Premier League players
4 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD
In one line
Morocco is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 2.6% champion probability, ranking them #14 of 48 nations. They play in Group C and have 4 Premier League players in their squad. Their model probability to reach the knockout rounds is high (70.0% R16).
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